JPMorgan’s commodities research team said it had no baseline oil-price forecast because the prolonged US-Iran conflict has invalidated key assumptions behind its market models. The analysts wrote, "We simply don’t know how to model the endgame." The conflict began in early March 2026, and a ceasefire reached in June collapsed shortly afterward. JPMorgan had initially expected economic pressure points—including oil above $100 a barrel, inflation at 4%, gasoline above $5 a gallon and 10-year government borrowing costs at 5%—to push the Trump administration toward a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Six months into the war, several of those thresholds have been breached while an exit strategy remains unclear. Disruptions to tanker traffic through the chokepoint are estimated to have removed approximately 10 million barrels per day from supply, but weaker consumption has offset part of the shock, with global oil demand about 4.4 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Brent has averaged roughly $94 per barrel since fighting began and traded between $103 and $106 in mid-September, while JPMorgan estimates September fair value near $90. Analysts said prices above fair value reflect the risk of further disruption, including threats around Yemen’s Bab al-Mandab Strait and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. US President Donald Trump said last week he did not expect the war to end before the November midterm elections and predicted oil prices would fall afterward. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week for the first time in more than three years and indicated further increases could come this year and into 2027, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long.