Iran war drives global fuel inflation and shortages as supply routes tighten

  • The Iran war is disrupting crude and refined-product flows, driving higher fuel prices and shortages across France, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Nepal.
  • Brent crude traded near $110 this month, while Vitol estimated refined-product losses of almost 2 million barrels a day from Russia and nearly 2 million more from the Middle East.
  • Governments are rationing fuel, cutting taxes, subsidizing consumers or considering strategic-reserve releases as winter demand and shipping disruptions add pressure.

The Iran war is driving higher fuel prices, shortages and rationing across global markets as disruptions to crude and refined-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab tighten supply. Brent crude traded near $110 this month, its strongest level since spring, while fuel rationing or empty pumps were reported in France, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Nepal by September 19. The disruption is also raising gasoline, diesel, jet-fuel and natural-gas costs, adding inflation, airline operating expenses, protests and fiscal pressure. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said the market was short almost 2 million barrels a day of refined products from Russia and nearly 2 million more from the Middle East, while the International Energy Agency said Gulf refined shipments remained below half their February pace. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel reached $4.705 per gallon by mid-September, up from $4.341 earlier in the month. Governments have imposed rationing, capped prices, subsidized fuels, cut taxes or considered strategic-reserve releases, but the International Monetary Fund has warned that prolonged support can create substantial fiscal burdens.

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