Bitcoin gained 3.4% in September 2026 despite its historically weak seasonal pattern, recovering after a dip linked to the US Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike. The Fed unanimously raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in more than three years. Bitcoin had fallen to $75,000 after the regulatory setback but recovered following the widely anticipated decision. Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the CLARITY Act setback generated more volatility than the Fed move, while BTC held up better than higher-beta assets including ETH and SOL. The S&P 500 closed down 0.45% at 7,551.81, financial stocks fell sharply and cybersecurity shares showed relative strength. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $450 million in net outflows on September 15 and $296 million on September 16. The Fed cited persistent inflation above its 2% target, geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs, while its dot plot indicated at least one additional rate increase before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield moved toward and recently above 5%, leaving inflation, employment and yields as key tests for bitcoin and broader risk assets.