The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point increase on Sept. 16 lifted its target range to 3.75%-4% and increased expectations of another hike, with CME, Polymarket and Kalshi putting October odds at roughly 54%-57.6%. Fed projections indicate one more increase this year, while Goldman Sachs expects another 25-basis-point move at the next meeting and Bank of America forecasts three hikes. Higher U.S. yields and oil prices have strengthened the dollar and pressured the won, while Citi Research warns that tighter financial conditions could weigh on housing, debt-dependent manufacturers and hiring. Equity investors are also monitoring Middle East tensions, Treasury yields, semiconductor restrictions and calls to slow artificial-intelligence development. The S&P 500 was up more than 11% in 2026 but about 2% below its mid-August record, with technology accounting for 38% of the index and AI investment remaining a key support unless markets or credit conditions deteriorate sharply.