Iran’s maritime trade has been severely disrupted by the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing shipments onto congested land routes while worsening shortages, inflation and transport costs. More than 80% of Iran’s trade tonnage previously moved through southern ports, but U.S. Central Command said it has redirected 109 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade. Trade with neighboring countries has increased, including a 19% rise in trade with Turkey to $3.2 billion in the first half of the year, but customs delays and inadequate infrastructure have left thousands of trucks stranded for weeks. In the five months ending Aug. 22, Iran’s non-oil exports fell 28% year over year to $15 billion and imports dropped 26% to $17 billion. Inflation has reached 90%, while fuel shortages have prompted Tehran to raise prices as limited refining capacity and disrupted imports pressure gasoline supplies. Shipping a container between Iran and China costs about $3,000 by sea, compared with $12,000 over land; applying that difference to 2 million annual containers implies roughly $18 billion in additional yearly transport costs. Iranian officials and industry representatives have said the southern trade corridors through the Gulf must be restored, while President Donald Trump is relying on economic pressure to end the conflict. Experts caution that Iran’s government may endure economic hardship longer than the U.S. public can tolerate high fuel prices. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper said the military has supported the passage of 1 billion barrels of oil and more than 2,000 commercial ships through the strait over two months, while Iran exported zero barrels under the blockade. Iranian crude and condensate loadings had already fallen to 220,000 to 260,000 barrels per day in August 2026, down more than 80% from a year earlier, and floating storage declined from about 90 million barrels in mid-July to roughly 29 million by mid-September. A prediction market put the odds of a U.S.-Iran agreement by the end of September at 5.8% YES.