NH Investment sees Kospi at 6,400-7,500 amid pre-Chuseok volatility

  • NH Investment & Securities projects the Kospi will trade between 6,400 and 7,500 this week.
  • Kospi closed at 6,894.23 on Sept. 18, rising 178.82 points, or 2.66%.
  • Analysts say post-holiday trading could benefit from returning sidelined funds.

NH Investment & Securities projects the Kospi to trade between 6,400 and 7,500 this week, while cautioning that risk-off sentiment could intensify from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23 ahead of the Chuseok holiday. Uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic outlook and the Sept. 24 summit in Washington between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to keep investors cautious. Analysts say any pullback could provide an opportunity to increase equity exposure ahead of a potential post-holiday rebound. Earnings expectations for Kospi-listed companies remain on an upward trend, with combined consensus net profit attributable to controlling shareholders at 806.3 trillion won ($583.1 billion) for this year and 1,047.5 trillion won ($758.0 billion) for next year. The Kospi's 12-month forward PER (price-to-earnings ratio based on projected earnings) stands at 5.5, its lowest level on record. The index closed at 6,894.23 on Sept. 18, gaining 178.82 points, or 2.66%, as foreign investors returned. NH analyst Na Jeong-hwan cited easing U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices as potential supports, while warning that looser U.S. semiconductor restrictions on China could weigh on the market. Any easing affecting China's memory-chip industry would be viewed as a major negative for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Daishin Securities analyst Lee Kyung-min said investors are balancing concerns over a more hawkish Federal Reserve against reduced policy uncertainty. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75% to 4.0% at its September FOMC meeting, which ended Sept. 16, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left open the possibility of further tightening. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.25% from 1.0% on Sept. 18, taking the rate to its highest level since 1995. Over the past 10 years, the Kospi's average return was minus 0.42% in the five trading days before Chuseok and plus 0.68% in the five trading days afterward.

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NH Investment sees Kospi at 6,400-7,500 amid pre-Chuseok volatility - CoinPost Terminal