The United States has warned that fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen could escalate rapidly after a missile attack targeted Riyadh, the first such incident since hostilities resumed. President Donald Trump cut short his stay at Camp David and returned unexpectedly to the White House on Saturday. The renewed military action has intensified concerns about regional instability and possible wider involvement by Iran. In a prediction market, the probability of a potential U.S. invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 rose to 16.5% YES from 16%. Such markets express the price participants assign to a defined future outcome, although the change does not establish that military action is imminent. Observers will be watching for additional missile attacks or military engagements involving the Saudi-led coalition and Houthi forces, as well as statements or actions by President Trump on the U.S. military posture in the region. Diplomatic efforts, particularly negotiations aimed at de-escalation, will also shape market expectations. Vera is promoting live prediction-market analysis and sign-ups on its platform.