Saudi oil exports rebound above 4 million barrels per day as pipeline outlook diverges

  • Saudi Arabia rerouted crude exports after Houthi strikes disrupted the East-West Pipeline near Yanbu.
  • Industry reports said a prolonged pipeline outage could remove up to 4% of global oil supply.
  • Prediction markets priced a September 30 pipeline restart at 31.5%, down from 34%.

Saudi Arabia's crude exports recovered to more than 4 million barrels per day in September from 2.4 million bpd in August after Houthi attacks disrupted the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu. Saudi Aramco redirected cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz and offered additional shipments to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port, although the changes added costs and reliance on a strategic waterway. Industry reports said a sustained pipeline outage could remove up to 4% of global oil supply. Prediction markets put the chance of a September 30 restart at 31.5%, down from 34% a day earlier, while pricing implied a 76.5% chance of operations resuming by November 1. The new report described August exports as a multi-decade low, while earlier reporting identified the 2.4 million-bpd level as the lowest since 2013.

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