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Polymarket assigns 22% odds to Bab el-Mandeb closure by December 31, 2026

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  • Polymarket assigns a 22% probability to effective Bab el-Mandeb closure by December 31, 2026.
  • Ship arrivals have fallen to roughly 15 daily, remaining above the 10-vessel closure threshold.
  • Houthi forces captured Mokha and seized Perim and the Hanish islands in September 2026.
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