Escalating attacks on Black Sea ports, vessels and infrastructure have disrupted grain flows from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, about two-thirds of sunflower oil exports and roughly a tenth of corn shipments. Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July-September are estimated at about half last year’s level, while Russia is redirecting cargo through Baltic, Arctic, Caspian and Far Eastern routes. September Russian grain exports are estimated at 2.45 million tons, half last year’s volume, after July-August shipments fell 31% year-on-year. Ukraine’s August seaborne grain exports fell to 0.5 million-0.6 million tons from a normal 7 million tons, leaving about 92% of capacity offline. Wheat prices have reached three-year highs and risen approximately 24% since January 2026. Egypt has received no Black Sea grain for about a month, while buyers including Vietnam’s Golden Wheat are replacing cargoes with more expensive supplies from Bulgaria and the United States. Alternative routes remain limited or costly, and the Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that continued disruption could raise global food prices by 11.8% during 2026. Turkey is seeking a new agreement modeled on the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, but reduced planting and ongoing attacks raise risks for 2027 supplies.