Iran's economy buckles as blockade cuts oil exports and GDP shrinks 10.1%

  • Iran’s GDP fell 10.1% year-on-year in the first Persian-calendar quarter, with oil and gas activity down 26.4%.
  • Iranian crude and condensate loadings declined from about 2 million bpd in March to 220,000-255,000 bpd in August.
  • Non-oil exports fell 28% to $15 billion and imports dropped 26% to $17 billion in the five months ending Aug. 22.

Iran’s gross domestic product contracted 10.1% year-on-year from March 21 to June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar, as the US-Israel war, naval blockade, sanctions and trade disruptions intensified pressure on the economy. The oil and gas sector contracted 26.4%, GDP excluding oil fell 4.6%, and Iranian crude and condensate loadings declined from about 2 million barrels per day in March to 220,000-255,000 bpd in August. The blockade has cut off much of Iran’s maritime trade, with more than 80% of pre-war trade tonnage previously moving through southern ports, while U.S. Central Command said it redirected 109 commercial vessels and supported the passage of 1 billion barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz for other Persian Gulf producers. Iranian customs data for the five months ending Aug. 22 showed non-oil exports down 28% to $15 billion and imports down 26% to $17 billion. Trade with neighbors increased in some cases, but congested land crossings, fuel shortages and higher transport costs added to the strain. Official 12-month average inflation reached 69.9%, while an earlier report put inflation at 90%; unemployment reached 9.1% and the rial weakened to more than 2.2 million per dollar in early September. President Masoud Pezeshkian said total trade had fallen 25% to 35%. Tehran has linked economic relief to the release of frozen funds and an end to the naval blockade, while diplomatic efforts involving Qatar and Pakistan continue.

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