Global grain markets have tightened sharply through 2026, with corn consumption expected to exceed production by approximately 29 million tonnes in 2026/27, the largest absolute deficit in 33 years. U.S. corn stocks-to-use have fallen to 9.7% from 12.1% earlier this year, below the 10% level often associated with tighter supplies, while the USDA estimates yields at 178.5 bushels per acre. Corn and wheat futures have each risen 8% since May 1, and soybeans have gained 12%. Combined corn and wheat output among major exporters is projected to drop 84 million tonnes from a year earlier, while limited Black Sea export capacity and potential weather disruption from a strong El Niño add to supply risks. Brazil's soybean production growth is forecast at just 0.7% by CONAB, and competition for U.S. farmland could intensify in 2027 after corn and soybean acreage reached a record 183.5 million acres in 2026. Earlier U.S. harvest progress and weaker export sales have provided some counterpressure to the bullish outlook.