Kalshi ETH perpetual volume faces scrutiny after analysis finds repeated trade values

  • The Defiant found recurring trade values in Kalshi's ether perpetual futures market.
  • Clustered trades represented $307.6 million, or 62.75%, of $490.3 million sampled notional volume.
  • Kalshi's public API does not identify trading counterparties, preventing confirmation of wash trading.

Kalshi's ether perpetual futures market is facing renewed scrutiny after The Defiant found that trades clustered around recurring dollar values accounted for most of the sampled notional volume. Its analysis of 120,000 consecutive KXETHPERP trades between Sept. 20 and Sept. 21 found that 47.2% of transactions fell within a narrow value band and represented $307.6 million, or 62.75%, of $490.3 million in total notional volume. The findings follow wash-trading allegations by quantitative analyst Beni, although Kalshi's public API does not identify either side of a trade and cannot determine whether a single party controlled both sides. The sample also showed $612.5 million of 24-hour notional volume against $9.7 million in open interest at one point, while similar but less concentrated patterns appeared in Kalshi's Bitcoin and NEAR perpetual markets. Kalshi did not respond to The Defiant, and no CFTC enforcement action has accused the exchange of wash trading in crypto perpetuals.

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