France's debt forecast at 119.3% of GDP in 2026, 121.7% in 2027

  • France's finance ministry projected public debt of 119.3% of GDP in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027.
  • €65 billion is expected to be spent servicing France's debt this year, 25% more than last year.
  • Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said planned 2027 budget cuts and adjustments would total €54 billion.

France's public debt is projected to reach 119.3% of GDP in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027, the highest level since records began in 1978, as a persistent budget deficit drives borrowing higher. The debt ratio would be more than twice the European Union's 60% reference limit, making France the eurozone's third most indebted country behind Greece and Italy. The finance ministry expects the deficit to reach 5.4% of GDP this year, up from 5.1% in 2025, while Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the 2026 shortfall would remain below 5.5%. Rising refinancing costs are adding pressure: the 10-year government bond yield reached 4.45%, the 30-year yield touched 5.11%, and debt-servicing costs are expected to rise 25% to €65 billion. Public finances are emerging as a central issue before the presidential election, with Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms and Marine Le Pen's pledge to restore retirement at 62 both politically contentious. The government has submitted its draft 2027 budget to the High Council of Public Finances and plans €54 billion in cuts and adjustments, while the economy has contracted 0.2% in the first quarter and stagnated in the second.

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