Sterling stays below $1.34 as falling oil prices trim Bank of England hike bets

  • Sterling remained below $1.34 as traders reduced Bank of England rate-hike expectations.
  • Markets priced an 80% chance of a November hike and 56% chance of another by year-end.
  • The government is reportedly considering extending a new property tax to homes above $1.5 million.

Sterling remained below $1.34 as traders slightly reduced expectations for Bank of England rate increases following a decline in oil prices. Brent crude eased toward $100 a barrel after US President Trump left open the possibility of diplomacy with Iran, reducing fears of an imminent supply shock. Stronger regional crude flows also eased pressure on physical markets. UK policymakers said last week that the inflation and interest-rate outlook would depend heavily on oil and gas prices in the coming months. Markets price an approximately 80% chance of a Bank of England hike at the November meeting and about a 56% probability of a second increase by year-end. Investors are also focusing on next month’s Autumn Budget, as the government reportedly considers extending a new property tax to homes valued above $1.5 million. The US dollar remained supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

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