The market-implied probability of Iran Reconstruction Funding being included in a US-Iran deal in 2026 has slipped to 15% YES, indicating reduced confidence that an agreement will materialize this year. The shift follows rising geopolitical tension after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and an exchange of threats between the United States and Iran. The reported escalation, described as unprecedented in scale against Riyadh, has added to regional instability and complicated diplomatic efforts. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are identified among the key figures involved, with Qatar and Pakistan supporting mediation efforts. Prediction-market (trading on event outcomes) participants are also watching further diplomatic contacts, Saudi Arabia's response, statements by Mike Vance, and any military developments involving Israel or Lebanon. The analysis is powered by Vera.