Wall Street banks forecast roughly $1 trillion in Treasury bill issuance

  • Wall Street banks project roughly $1 trillion in net Treasury bill issuance over the next year.
  • Bank of America forecasts $1.07 trillion, JPMorgan $1.09 trillion and Goldman Sachs $961 billion.
  • Outstanding Treasury bills could reach $8 trillion, or 24.3% of marketable debt.

Wall Street banks expect roughly $1 trillion of net Treasury bill issuance over the next year, although the figures are forecasts rather than an announced Treasury borrowing plan. Bank of America projects about $1.07 trillion in fiscal 2027, JPMorgan $1.09 trillion for calendar 2027 and Goldman Sachs $961 billion. The Treasury's official borrowing estimates remain $739 billion for July–September and $628 billion for October–December, with bill auction sizes potentially increasing again in October. The projected issuance would lift outstanding Treasury bills toward $8 trillion, or about 24.3% of marketable government debt, above the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's historical 15%–20% range. The shift reflects persistent federal deficits approaching $2 trillion annually and long-term yields near levels last sustained before the 2008 financial crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the approach, which combines larger long-term-security buybacks with greater bill issuance, as a "Treasury Twist." Demand from money-market funds with assets near $8 trillion and Federal Reserve reserve-management purchases currently supports the market, while stablecoin issuers provide another source of Treasury-bill demand. The trade-off is higher refinancing exposure and greater volatility in government interest costs if short-term rates rise or remain elevated.

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