Microsoft says Azure acceleration is driven by capacity and efficiency, BNP Paribas reiterates Buy

  • Stefan Slowinski reaffirmed BNP Paribas's Buy rating and $549 target for Microsoft.
  • Azure growth reached the mid-40% range through efficiency gains and expanded computing capacity.
  • Microsoft disclosed an OpenAI revenue-sharing ceiling reportedly near $38 billion.

Microsoft's Azure growth has accelerated into the mid-40% range, driven mainly by operational efficiencies and increased data-center capacity rather than pricing changes, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski said after discussions with company executives. Slowinski reaffirmed his Buy rating and $549 price target. Microsoft is implementing Azure price increases, but existing customers will generally face them only when contracts renew, making the revenue effect gradual. The company disputed a report that it planned to expand data-center capacity to 38 gigawatts by 2032, without providing an alternative figure, and said demand continues to exceed available computing supply. Speculation about a possible SpaceX computing partnership has grown, but Microsoft has not confirmed such an arrangement. Microsoft also told BNP Paribas that its revenue-sharing agreement with OpenAI has a ceiling reportedly around $38 billion and that OpenAI is not responsible for Azure's current acceleration. Microsoft said it would separately disclose OpenAI's financial contribution if it became material. Shares were recently near $501.61, up about 1.6% during the session. Wall Street's consensus was Strong Buy, with 33 Buy ratings and two Holds over the past three months and an average target of $569.94, implying about 14% upside. RBC Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating and $640 target, while Citizens reiterated Market Outperform with a $550 target. Separately, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $608 from $522 and retained an overweight rating, while Rothschild & Co. Redburn lifted its target to $440 but kept a neutral rating, citing AI-infrastructure obligations and economics. Azure growth reached 43% in fiscal fourth-quarter 2026, above Microsoft's prior 39% to 40% outlook, and Microsoft later guided to about 44.5% growth at the midpoint for fiscal first-quarter 2027. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 18% to $331.8 billion, net income increased 31% to $133.7 billion, and contracted backlog reached $678 billion.

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