Wheat falls to around $7 as Ukraine ceasefire hopes lift Black Sea shipping prospects

  • Wheat fell to around $7 per bushel as renewed Ukraine diplomacy raised hopes for restored Black Sea shipping.
  • A prediction market priced a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at 21% YES, slightly above the previous day.
  • US winter wheat planting reached 17%, versus the five-year average of 21%, while Zelenskyy said energy-truce discussions had not covered refinery strikes.

Wheat fell to around $7 per bushel, its lowest level since August 25, as renewed Russia-Ukraine diplomacy raised hopes of restored Black Sea shipping. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Donald Trump was concentrating efforts on promoting peace, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said discussions with Trump focused on ending the four-year-old war and potentially establishing an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Russia. A prediction market priced a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at 21% YES, slightly above the previous day. US winter wheat planting was 17% complete as of Sunday, below the five-year average of 21%, although rainfall improved topsoil moisture and germination prospects across the northern and central Plains.

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