Bank of America warned that Brent crude could rise above $150 per barrel if the conflict involving Iran and wider Middle East supply disruptions continue or damage additional oil infrastructure. Brent was trading at approximately $98.73 per barrel on September 22, 2026, following a recent rally. The bank raised its Brent forecast for the second half of this year to $95 from $83, while projecting an average price of about $80 in 2027. Disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, refinery outages, lower Middle East and Russian exports, and tighter Chinese product shipments have reduced global supply. The bank estimates that about 350 million barrels have been removed from above-ground global stocks since March, leaving inventories roughly 200 million barrels below record seasonal lows. Markets were pricing a 10.5% likelihood that Brent would reach a new all-time high by December 31. Saudi export rerouting and expectations of US-Iran diplomacy previously eased prices, but Houthi threats, damage to regional infrastructure, reduced Libyan output and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose risks. Observers will watch the Iran conflict, possible diplomatic resolutions, OPEC and energy-agency responses, production adjustments and changes in Middle East stability.