Goldman names Microsoft top AI pick, sees 28% upside to $640 target

  • Goldman Sachs named Microsoft its top AI-sector pick and maintained its Buy rating.
  • Microsoft’s $51 billion fourth-quarter RPO increase came entirely from enterprises.
  • Microsoft announced 268 Xbox layoffs and consolidated several game studios under Activision.

Goldman Sachs named Microsoft its top pick in the artificial-intelligence sector, maintained its Buy rating and kept the stock on its Conviction List after meetings with Microsoft executives in Europe and San Francisco. The bank said strategic decisions over the past three years, including front-loaded long-dated capital spending and balanced investment across first-party applications, third-party customers, frontier models and enterprises, are producing results as businesses evaluate AI platforms. Goldman’s 12-month price target remains $640, implying nearly 28% upside from Microsoft’s Monday closing price of $501.61. The bank highlighted MAIA, Microsoft AI and enterprise-platform go-to-market momentum as areas for potential value discovery. It also noted that the entire $51 billion increase in fourth-quarter remaining performance obligations came from enterprises rather than frontier labs, reducing dependence on any single model. Microsoft’s enterprise AI strategy includes Agent 365 bundled in E7, business-specific model applications and expanded field deployment engineering. Separately, Microsoft’s Xbox division announced 268 layoffs and the consolidation of several game studios under Activision. Oppenheimer and Cantor Fitzgerald have also raised their price targets while retaining Outperform and Overweight ratings, respectively.

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