Prediction-market forecasts show Democrats gaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterms. Kalshi assigns an 83.0% chance of a Democratic blue wave, defined as at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats, although an earlier market reading was 83.6%, up from 73.8% a week earlier. Kalshi separately gives Democrats a 61% chance of taking the Senate, a 91% chance of winning the House and a 62% chance of sweeping both chambers, up from 46.5% a month earlier. Polymarket assigns Democrats 66% sweep odds, with 93% for the House and 66% for the Senate. Polling, Republican breaks with Donald Trump and concerns over his approval ratings, prices and the Iran war were cited as factors favoring Democrats. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority and a 218–214 House advantage, with one independent and two vacancies.