Former President Donald Trump has said oil prices will decline once the ongoing conflict with Iran concludes, a view consistent across his remarks. Brent crude and other global benchmarks have recently surpassed $100 a barrel as the conflict drives market volatility, with prices reacting sharply to ceasefire or deal announcements. Market pricing now puts the probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 at 0.5%, while the probability by December 31 has fallen to 10.5%. Those figures suggest participants are taking a cautious view and interpreting Trump’s comments as consistent with oil not reaching new highs in the immediate future. Further developments in the Iran conflict, along with production decisions or forecasts from OPEC (oil producers' group) and the International Energy Agency, will be important for market expectations over the next few weeks. Vera offers live prediction-market analysis related to the outlook.