Democrats have gained ground in the 2026 midterm elections, with prediction markets assigning them a 63% chance of retaking the Senate on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket. Bettors favor Democrats in competitive races including Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and Alaska, while James Talarico leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in market pricing despite no Democrat winning a statewide Texas race since 1994. Polls also show Democratic strength: an Economist/YouGov survey found likely voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates 52% to 38%, while a New York Times/Siena poll found a 51%-43% Democratic advantage. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin models put Democratic Senate takeover chances between 63% and 69%, although Democrats are not favored to control both chambers. The shift comes as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings fall amid affordability concerns and the ongoing Iran war. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority and a 218-213 House majority. Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend for adult U.S. citizens if Republicans win both chambers could cost more than $1.2 trillion and has not improved Republican standing in polls or betting markets.