The South Korean government has determined that the Encinal gas-fired power plant in Texas, selected as its first major U.S. investment project, can recover its principal investment and financial costs over 20 years. It estimates revenue of $43.3 billion to $45.4 billion during that period, nearly twice the project’s $22.3 billion total cost, or approximately 30 trillion Korean won. A safeguard would preserve a 5:5 profit-sharing ratio between South Korea and the U.S. until the investment principal is recovered, supporting the government’s assertion that the project has commercial rationality. The calculation nevertheless relies on stable power sales outlets that the U.S. side has not guaranteed. The government is counting on rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers, with Google, Meta and Microsoft continuing to invest in Texas. ERCOT (Texas power-grid operator) said in a preliminary April forecast that regional demand could reach about 367.8 GW in 2032, more than four times the 85.5 GW maximum recorded in 2023, while warning that the projection could exceed actual growth and does not ensure all proposed projects will be built. Multiple power applications, early reservations and projects that are consolidated or canceled could create ghost demand (inflated power requests that do not become real consumption). Opposition over data centers’ electricity and water use, noise and higher power bills is also increasing. Governor Greg Abbott ordered a temporary halt on the 21st to new data-center permits by state environmental authorities while their grid impact is investigated. Delayed or canceled data centers could reduce demand and leave the Encinal plant exposed if sales volumes or prices fall below expectations. Chevron’s approach highlights the importance of securing buyers before investment: while planning a 2.67 GW gas-fired plant in Pecos, western Texas, it signed a 20-year electricity supply contract with Microsoft in June.