Brazil cuts 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%

  • Brazil’s government lowered its 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
  • Growth forecasts fell to 2.0% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027.
  • The ministry expects average annual growth of 2.6% from 2028 through 2030.

Brazil’s government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3% in July, saying stronger agricultural prospects would not offset weaker expectations for services and industrial output. The Economic Policy Secretariat of the Finance Ministry also cut its 2027 GDP projection to 2.3% from 2.5%, citing a more gradual monetary easing cycle that would shift part of the recovery into later years. The ministry expects average growth of 2.6% between 2028 and 2030. It reduced its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.9% from 5.1% but raised the 2027 projection to 3.8% from 3.6% because of a stronger El Nino pattern affecting next year’s harvest. The forecasts will underpin revenue and spending estimates due later this week and remain above market expectations.

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