Anthropic is currently favored to become the first of the two leading AI companies to go public, with Kalshi assigning a 93% probability that it will list before OpenAI. Both companies filed S-1 registration statements with the SEC in June 2026, but Anthropic filed on June 1, a week before OpenAI. Anthropic is targeting an October Nasdaq debut, while OpenAI’s IPO has reportedly slipped into 2027 amid operational and structural challenges. Kalshi contracts have drawn millions of dollars in trading volume, including one series that reached $1.7 million. Anthropic’s projected revenue run rate of $65 billion exceeds OpenAI’s roughly $40 billion, while its private valuation reached approximately $1.11 trillion by July after secondary-market activity. Earlier Polymarket contracts had assigned much lower odds to an Anthropic listing by specific 2026 deadlines, reflecting changing market expectations. Anthropic’s public-benefit-corporation structure is less complex than OpenAI’s transition from nonprofit control to a conventional for-profit corporation, potentially giving it a more straightforward route to a public listing.