The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8% in June, saying the economy has proved more resilient than expected after an energy supply shock tied to the Middle East conflict. Growth is still set to slow from 3.4% in 2025, while the OECD lowered its 2027 global forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. The OECD increased forecasts for the United States, Japan and the euro area, projecting 2026 growth of 2.2%, 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. China’s forecast was unchanged at 4.5%, while G20 output is expected to grow 3.1%. Spain is forecast to lead the major euro-area economies covered, expanding 2.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Large oil inventories, supply from producers outside the Gulf, government energy support, supportive financial conditions and AI-related investment have limited the hit to activity and trade. But the OECD expects G20 headline inflation of 4.1% in 2026 and euro-area inflation of 3.0%, as higher energy costs prompt monetary tightening. It warned that elevated government bond yields, prolonged conflict, an intense El Niño event and weak returns on AI investment could weaken growth.