New Zealand dollar falls to $0.567 as hawkish Fed outlook lifts US dollar

  • New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.567 as the US dollar reached a nearly two-month high.
  • Markets assigned a 75% chance to an RBNZ hike to 3.0% in October.
  • Stronger-than-expected PMI data intensified concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve rate increases.

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.567 on Thursday, hovering at an eleven-week low as a stronger US dollar pressured the currency. The greenback reached its strongest level in nearly two months after stronger-than-expected purchasing managers’ index data intensified concerns about inflation and boosted expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. Several Fed officials had already expressed broader concerns about persistent inflation risks, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflationary shocks could take time to fade. The hawkish US policy outlook outweighed growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, or RBNZ, will deliver a third rate increase at its October meeting. Markets put the probability of a hike to 3.0% at 75% after Governor Anna Breman warned that sustained oil-price increases could push near-term inflation above the central bank’s latest forecast. Her emphasis on an uneven economic recovery highlighted the challenge of addressing inflation while supporting fragile domestic growth.

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