Global wheat buyers face sharply higher replenishment costs as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts Black Sea exports. Benchmark Chicago futures have climbed 40% from June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high, while alternative supplies are also becoming more expensive. Russian wheat exports are estimated at about 1 million tons in September, down from 5 million tons a year earlier, while Ukraine is expected to ship about 1 million tons, half last September’s volume. Asia is under the greatest near-term pressure: Indonesia received about 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this month, versus 500,000 tons last September, and is paying 20% to 25% more for Australian wheat. Egypt is diversifying toward France and other European suppliers, although domestic stocks and recent regional harvests provide some temporary flexibility. Competition for cargoes is expected to intensify until Southern Hemisphere harvests begin at the end of the year.