Brent crude fell below $99 a barrel after trading above $103 earlier in the week, as progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and expectations for the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline eased concerns about geopolitical disruptions and potential supply constraints. Prediction-market pricing for a new all-time high has weakened, with the September 30 contract at 0.5% YES, compared with 0% 24 hours earlier and 2% a week ago. The December 31 market stands at 10.5% YES, down from 16% a week earlier. The pricing points to a lower perceived chance of a near-term price spike, though further diplomatic announcements, pipeline developments, potential ceasefire efforts, OPEC statements or meetings, and comments from Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud could alter the outlook.