UK 10-year gilt yields stabilized around 5.23%, near their lowest level since September 8, as Brent crude fell for a sixth consecutive day and traded around $98-$99 a barrel. Oil prices had exceeded $100 earlier this month, but cautious optimism over Iran-U.S. relations, reports that Saudi Arabia was preparing to restart a key pipeline, and progress in U.S.-Iran talks weighed on the market. Prediction markets put the chance of a new all-time crude high by September 30 at 0.5%, down from 2% a week earlier, while assigning a 10.5% probability by December 31. The decline in oil prices did little to reduce expectations of Bank of England tightening, with markets still pricing a solid chance of a 25bp rate hike in November. Preliminary September PMI data showed continued UK expansion, although growth slowed slightly and missed expectations. Services companies cited weak domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainty, while artificial intelligence investment and higher defense spending supported manufacturing. In the United States, hawkish Federal Reserve comments reinforced expectations of further rate increases. Markets are also monitoring OPEC, the International Energy Agency and developments in the Middle East for potential effects on oil supply and prices.