US earnings estimates turn net negative after 23 weeks of upgrades

  • Equity analysts cut more US earnings estimates than they raised, according to a Citigroup index.
  • 23 weeks ended the longest uninterrupted earnings-upgrade streak since September 2021.
  • Morgan Stanley warned the S&P 500 could fall as much as 7%.

US earnings revisions have turned net negative for the first time in 23 weeks, ending the longest uninterrupted streak of positive revisions since September 2021, according to a Citigroup index tracking analyst sentiment. Concerns are concentrated in consumer staples, consumer discretionary, materials and financials as higher living costs weaken demand and rising funding costs increase pressure on borrowers and companies. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates earlier in September, its first hike in three years, while the OECD has warned that global inflation in 2027 could exceed earlier forecasts. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said the S&P 500 could fall as much as 7% if valuations weaken further, particularly if energy prices drive inflation high enough to prompt additional monetary tightening. Despite the negative revision balance, analysts remain broadly constructive on full-year 2026 US earnings growth, viewing the shift as a marginal deterioration rather than an abandonment of the broader profit outlook.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.