Polymarket puts odds of 25-basis-point October Fed hike at 65%

Sep 23, 2026 11:05 (30d ago)

Polymarket assigned a 65% probability to a 25-basis-point October Fed hike and 35% to no change, compared with an earlier 63.5% estimate.
The Fed unanimously raised its federal funds target range on Sept. 16 to 3.75%-4.00%, while July personal consumption expenditures inflation was 3.7% year-on-year against the Fed’s 2% target.
Citi forecast holds in October and December, but Goldman Sachs expected another October hike; analysts warned that either further tightening or an abrupt move toward 1% could unsettle markets and households.

PPP’s prediction-market monitoring shows Polymarket assigning a 65% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in October, versus 35% for no change. The newer reading is slightly above an earlier 63.5% estimate. Citi previously projected holds in October and December while awaiting more evidence that inflation is slowing. The odds follow the Fed’s unanimous 25-basis-point increase on Sept. 16 to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, its first hike since July 2023, and President Donald Trump’s renewed demand for rates of 1% or lower. Analysts warned that further tightening could pressure stocks, borrowers and households, while an abrupt cut toward 1% could trigger a Treasury selloff, higher long-term borrowing costs, a weaker dollar and less-anchored inflation expectations.