Prediction-market pricing for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian leaving office by December 31 has risen to 9.5%, from 7% over the previous 24 hours. The move follows Pezeshkian’s address to the United Nations General Assembly amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, after U.S. President Donald Trump issued threats against Iran from the same platform. Pezeshkian’s speech reaffirmed Iran’s position, while market participants assessed whether it could be his final appearance at the U.N. as president. The change reverses an earlier decline in exit odds that accompanied reports of mediated Washington-Tehran discussions involving U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iranian officials acknowledged those discussions, while the U.S. did not publicly confirm a direct bilateral meeting. Investors will monitor statements or actions by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian political or military bodies, as well as responses from the U.S. and its allies, for signs supporting or challenging a leadership transition before year-end.