Iran’s foreign ministry said an understanding had been reached on a safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz involving neighboring coastal countries, including Oman, but the waterway has not been fully reopened and remains under Iranian control. Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, warned that any new U.S. military action could spread to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Prediction-market pricing for a U.S.-Iran Hormuz agreement by September 30 has fallen to 5.5% YES, down from 7.3% in the earlier account. Iran says Washington must meet six conditions, including ending threats and aggression, withdrawing forces, lifting sanctions and the maritime blockade, compensating Iran for war damage, and releasing frozen assets. Shipping volumes have fallen to about 38% of pre-war levels since U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iranian interests began in February 2026. Iran distinguishes procedural contacts with Oman from substantive negotiations with Washington, while the United States disputes Iran’s assertion that the strait is closed.