Brazil central bank sees 3.1% inflation in 2028 after fifth rate cut

  • Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate 25 basis points to 13.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
  • The bank projected 3.1% inflation through the first quarter of 2029, near its 3% target.
  • The central bank lowered 2026 growth to 1.8% and forecast 1.4% growth in 2027.

Brazil’s central bank signaled room for another interest-rate cut after reducing the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Monetary policy director Nilton David said smooth, predictable moves were the best response to uncertainty, while emphasizing that the cycle represented fine-tuning rather than broad monetary easing and that rates must remain restrictive to return inflation to the 3% target. A later central bank projection put annual inflation at 3.1% in the second quarter of 2028 and through the first quarter of 2029, close to target and supportive of further rate-cut expectations. The bank also lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% and introduced a 1.4% forecast for 2027, below government estimates of 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively. Policymakers cited weaker-than-expected third-quarter indicators, a less favorable composition of second-quarter growth, fading fiscal and credit support, limited spare capacity and an uncertain external environment. The bank kept its next steps open ahead of the presidential election, while its survey of more than 100 economists showed expectations for another 25-basis-point cut this year.

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