UK 10-year gilt yields rose back above 5.3% as Brent crude rebounded and investors assessed preliminary September PMI (purchasing managers’ index) data. Oil prices recovered after five consecutive sessions of losses amid ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran talks, with President Trump threatening further action against Iran while also saying a deal could come soon. The UK survey showed business activity continued expanding in September, though growth slowed slightly and fell short of expectations. Markets nevertheless continue to price a solid chance of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike in November. In the United States, much stronger-than-expected PMI data indicated the sharpest business-activity expansion in more than five years, while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers strengthened expectations of additional monetary tightening. The outlook follows the Fed’s rate increase last week, its first since 2023.