Ukraine’s economic outlook has deteriorated as continued Russian attacks damage its energy system, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have contributed to fuel shortages, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said Thursday. The EBRD lowered its growth forecasts for Ukraine and said an agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, together with the restoration of grain exports through the Black Sea, would significantly support the economy. The assessment comes as Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev prepares to meet Trump administration representatives Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and others in New York on Wednesday, September 23. The discussions, agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin and scheduled during the UN General Assembly, are expected to address Russia-US economic and energy cooperation and a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Russia and Ukraine expressed interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain and energy, including Black Sea shipping routes and energy infrastructure. Formal peace talks have stalled since early 2026, while Russia occupies a significant portion of Ukrainian territory and Ukraine continues long-range strikes on Russian energy assets. Market activity indicated a slight increase in the perceived odds of a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.