Emerging-market debt swelled by $6.5 trillion in first half of 2026

  • Global debt rose by more than $10 trillion in the first half of 2026.
  • Emerging-market debt increased by $6.5 trillion, surpassing $110 trillion.
  • The IIF identified China and the United States as major government-debt contributors.

Emerging-market debt increased by $6.5 trillion in the first half of 2026, taking the total above $110 trillion, with China driving much of the rise. The Institute of International Finance’s Global Debt Monitor, published on September 23, 2026, said global debt rose by more than $10 trillion during the period and surpassed $365 trillion. An earlier account had put global debt at nearly $353 trillion at the end of the first quarter, implying an increase of more than $12 trillion over roughly six months; the latest figure revises the reported increase to more than $10 trillion. Global debt-to-GDP ratios remained around 305%, but the IIF said higher inflation had lifted nominal GDP and made the ratio appear more stable while absolute debt reached records. Government borrowing in China and the United States was identified as a particular concern because fiscal deficits remain elevated. Emerging-market credit spreads, the premium over safer bonds, stayed near historical lows during parts of the year, allowing governments and companies in developing economies to retain access to international capital markets. The report also said government debt is now the fastest-growing sector, overtaking the earlier dominance of corporate and household borrowing. The IIF described a tension for investors: emerging-market assets remain accessible and attractively priced, but a slowdown in inflation could push debt-to-GDP ratios higher and prompt a reassessment of sovereign risk.

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