Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has moved ahead of Mayor Karen Bass in Kalshi’s L.A. mayoral prediction market after a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times showed Raman leading Bass 39%-28% among likely voters. Kalshi prices Raman’s winning chances at 58%, compared with 42% for Bass, while traders forecast a 10.3% victory margin. The poll’s 33% undecided share leaves a large bloc of voters up for grabs ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Bass faces pressure over her 63% unfavorable rating, fundraising prospects and concerns about homelessness, affordability and the 2025 Palisades fire. Her allies are expected to target Raman’s progressive record, Democratic Socialists of America ties and opposition to raises for Los Angeles Police Department officers, while Raman can emphasize her own credentials and campaign momentum. Other surveys have shown a closer contest, and the Bass campaign dismissed the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times survey as an outlier. Raman’s campaign and supporters said the poll could aid fundraising, while Bass is focusing on housing and affordability and seeking support from conservative and undecided voters, including former Spencer Pratt supporters.