DDHQ gives Democrats 72% chance to take House in November

Sep 24, 2026 01:15 (29d ago)

DDHQ gives Democrats a 72% chance of flipping the House, which requires a net gain of at least four seats.
RNC Chair Joe Gruters forecasts Republicans will win 220 House seats and 53 Senate seats.
Democrats lead Republicans 53% to 42% on Emerson College’s generic congressional ballot, while forecasters rate 10 Republican-held districts as vulnerable.

With less than six weeks before November’s midterm elections, Republicans are defending their 218-seat House majority as Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Democrats a 72% chance of taking the chamber and a 52% chance of winning both chambers. RNC Chair Joe Gruters nevertheless predicted Republicans would retain control of Congress, forecasting 220 House seats and 53 Senate seats and citing stronger candidates, greater resources and President Donald J. Trump’s planned nationwide rallies. Democrats hold an 11-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot in an Emerson College poll, while Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings vary by survey: DDHQ reported 37.9% approval and 60.7% disapproval, while Emerson reported 39% approval and 58% disapproval. The competitive map includes Republican-held seats in Arizona, California, Nebraska, New Jersey, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado and Pennsylvania.