Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis has moved above the cost basis of active long-term holders (LTH), marking the fifth occurrence of the signal, according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost. The crossover compares estimated average acquisition prices for newer and older holders and was previously recorded in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2023. Darkfost said the latest reading supports the recovery he anticipated after a separate signal appeared on July 11, while acknowledging that the indicator can fail. The active LTH calculation includes coins that moved at least once in the past seven years, excluding supply that remained untouched throughout that period. More than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years remains dormant, with the amount increasing by roughly 8,000 to 30,000 BTC monthly except for one decline since 2019, when an old miner moved about 100,000 BTC. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.06 billion of net inflows from Sept. 21 through Sept. 23, led by $999 million on Sept. 21, followed by $714.7 million and $346.9 million. The flows provide context for the bullish market backdrop but do not establish that ETF buying caused the crossover. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO, has said larger market size and rising institutional ownership could moderate future rallies and downturns, forecasting threefold to fivefold bitcoin returns this cycle followed by a milder bear market.