PPP’s prediction-market monitoring shows Polymarket assigning a 65% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in October, versus 35% for no change. The reading differs from Citi’s earlier analysis, which said the central bank would keep rates unchanged in October while awaiting more data on the effects of a 25-basis-point policy-rate increase, then hold again in December. Citi said a series of milder inflation readings by then should provide sufficient evidence that price growth is slowing and support another pause. PPP also invited readers to join its signal-sharing community for faster updates.