The United States is rapidly expanding rare earths mining and processing but will remain dependent on China well into the 2030s, creating a strategic weakness as President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington on Thursday. Output of the two most commonly used rare earths has more than tripled since Trump returned to office last year, yet the country currently covers only 42% of its demand and is expected to rely on imports for nearly a quarter of demand within five years. China dominates mining and refining, while the United States processes little of the heavy rare earths used in military applications. Washington has invested billions of dollars in companies including MP Materials, USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels, but replacing Chinese supply across the full value chain remains difficult. Analysts say the more realistic aim is a meaningful alternative supply chain capable of protecting strategic industries during geopolitical disruptions, rather than replacing China as the leading global supplier. Potentially extending China's delay on export restrictions through November 10 is expected to be discussed at the Trump-Xi meeting, while the White House's January 2027 target for blocking Chinese rare earth imports appears nearly impossible to meet.