Democratic candidate Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 43% in a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of Maine's 2026 Senate race, reversing the direction of a New York Times poll that previously put Collins ahead. The poll also showed Hannah Pingree leading the governor's race. Prediction-market pricing has nevertheless become less confident in a Democratic Senate victory, with the relevant market at 67.5% YES, down from 74% a day earlier, while Republican odds rose to 32.5% from 26%. The shift suggests that market participants continue to see the contest as unsettled despite Jackson's polling advantage. Future surveys, campaign developments, fundraising reports, endorsements and ranked-choice voting analyses will be watched for signs that Jackson can consolidate his lead or Collins can recover. The source also promotes live prediction-market analysis powered by Vera and invites readers to sign up for Vera.