UK 10-year gilt yields hold near 5.35% as rate hike bets persist

  • UK gilt yields remained little changed as oil prices and central-bank comments focused markets on policy.
  • 5.35% kept 10-year yields near the 19-year highs reached earlier this month.
  • September PMI showed UK business activity expanding, while markets priced a solid chance of a November hike.

UK 10-year gilt yields were little changed around 5.35%, keeping them near the 19-year highs reached earlier this month. Elevated oil prices and comments from Bank of England policymakers kept monetary policy in focus, while Brent extended its recent gains as heightened Middle East tensions clouded prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war. BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said rates may need to rise if energy prices stay elevated unless there is clear evidence of a weaker economy. MPC member Swati Dhingra said inflation expectations were not yet a concern. September PMI (business activity survey) data showed UK activity continued expanding, though growth slowed slightly and missed expectations. Markets still price in a solid chance of a 25-basis-point BoE rate hike in November. In the United States, investors also increased bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes after hawkish policymaker comments and stronger-than-expected PMI data.

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