European, British gas futures rebound 1.6% as U.S.-Iran tensions return

  • European and British gas futures rebounded 1.6% each on Thursday.
  • 74.50 euros per MWh was the Dutch TTF contract's trading level.
  • EU underground storage stood at 70%, 12 percentage points below 2025 levels.

European and British wholesale natural gas futures rose 1.6% each on Thursday as diminishing hopes for a rapid diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict restored risk premia across global energy markets. The Dutch front-month TTF (Europe's benchmark gas hub) contract reached 74.50 euros per megawatt-hour, recovering from a low touched recently that was the weakest in nearly three weeks. Britain's NBP (Britain's benchmark gas market) contract climbed to 185.85 pence per therm as traders continued to price risks to liquefied natural gas, or LNG, transit routes. Optimism over potential U.S.-Iran talks faded after U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran as a regional "bully" in a UN speech and raised the possibility of "annihilating" the Islamic Republic if hostilities intensified. Iran's military leadership and President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected the threats, while the Revolutionary Guard warned of "crushing" counter-strikes and said Iran would never surrender under naval blockades. The diplomatic standoff has undermined expectations that a quick peace agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening longer delays for Qatari and Persian Gulf LNG cargoes headed to European import terminals. Storage data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU underground inventories at 70% of capacity, about 12 percentage points below the level recorded during the same period in 2025 despite continued injections. The storage shortfall supports recent European Central Bank warnings that wholesale energy volatility remains a risk to consumer inflation and could keep pressure on central bank policy as the heating season approaches.

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