Nike faces deeper analyst downgrades as Needham cuts forecasts and BofA sees downside

  • Bank of America downgraded Nike to Underperform and cut its price target to $30.
  • Nike’s China revenue fell 17%; North American wholesale grew 14% in fiscal 2026.
  • BofA forecasts negative revenue growth through fiscal 2027 and a 107% dividend payout ratio.

Needham reiterated its Hold rating on Nike and cut its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts ahead of the company’s fiscal first-quarter results on Oct. 1 after the close. Bank of America separately downgraded Nike to Underperform from Neutral and reduced its price target to $30 from $47, implying approximately 17% downside from the previous close. BofA now expects negative revenue growth through fiscal 2027 and has delayed Nike’s revenue recovery to fiscal 2028, cutting its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts by 11% and 12%, respectively. Its fiscal 2027 estimate is 14% below Visible Alpha consensus. The bank said North American wholesale growth, which reached 14% in fiscal 2026, is losing momentum as retail sellout rates trail shipments and demand for legacy footwear weakens. It expects wholesale revenue to turn negative from the second quarter through the remainder of fiscal 2027. Greater China revenue fell 17% in the latest quarter, while Nike’s reduced reliance on online marketplace partners is expected to increase promotional activity through the second quarter. Nike shares were down more than 2% in Friday premarket trading and have fallen more than 44% year to date, compared with a 12% gain for the S&P 500. BofA also flagged a projected 107% fiscal 2027 dividend payout ratio, while noting lower tariff exposure and potential cost reductions under Nike’s recently appointed CFO as offsets.

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