Oil and European gas fall as US-Iran Hormuz talks ease supply fears

  • Oil and European gas prices fell as reported US-Iran diplomacy reduced fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
  • Ten commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Wednesday, while TTF and NBP gas futures each fell 3.2% and lost more than 8% for the week.
  • Houthi attacks and alternative-route risks persisted as EU gas storage stood near 70%, about 12 percentage points below last year.

Oil and European natural gas prices fell Friday after a volatile week as markets weighed possible US-Iran ceasefire negotiations against escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and ongoing supply risks. Brent crude rose as much as 5% on Thursday before easing into the $105-$106 a barrel range, while Dutch TTF and UK NBP gas futures each dropped 3.2% Friday and weekly losses exceeded 8%. Reports of diplomatic communications between Washington and Tehran over a phased framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz reduced the security premium in Persian Gulf energy markets. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the timing of the war's end depended on the United States, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait could reopen by the end of a seven-day period if certain conditions were met and broader negotiations resumed. Physical supply risks remained material: 10 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Wednesday, below the roughly 17-vessel average of the preceding 10 days; EU gas storage was about 70% full, 12 percentage points below last year; Norwegian pipeline maintenance was limiting deliveries; and European buyers were competing with Asian purchasers for spot LNG cargoes.

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